NI Press: Critical Analysis and the Intelligence Profession

Using Industry Analysis for Strategic Intelligence: Capabilities and Strategic Intent

Author Chuck Howe

Using Industry Analysis for Strategic Intelligence is part of the National Intelligence (NI) Press Occasional Paper Series. Occasional Papers examine topics of unique value to the Intelligence Community.

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Who Watches the Watchmen?: The Conflict Between National Security and Freedom of the Press

Author Gary Ross

Gary Ross’ book, Who Watches the Watchmen?, argues that the tension between maintaining national security secrets and the public’s right to know cannot be “solved,” but can be better understood and more intelligently managed.

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Sensemaking: A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution

Author David T. Moore

Sensemaking is the inaugural book in our new series, titled the A. Denis Clift Series on the Intelligence Profession. The Clift Series will present original research on intelligence analysis and the teaching of intelligence.

Sensemaking, whereby intelligence professionals would work with executive decisionmakers to explain data that are “sparse, noisy, and uncertain,” requires an interpreter and experienced champion to bring about a practicable understanding and acceptance of the concept among intelligence practitioners. David Moore has accomplished that feat. Further, he, along with collaborators in chapters 5 and 7, demonstrate how sensemaking can be accomplished as a collaborative enterprise.

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Interrogation: World War II, Vietnam and Iraq

Author John A. Wahlquist, James A. Stone

Nicholas R. Dotti, and William C. Spracher

The book follows the NDIC Press’s Educing Information Interrogation: Science and Art, Foundations for the Future. By adding historical and practical context going back to U.S. policy and practice in interrogations during World War II, the Vietnam confl ict, and the ongoing war in Iraq, this newest volume contributes to the high-profi le public dialogue on how U.S. military and civilian agencies can best obtain information from prisoners of war and other categories of legal and illegal combatants without compromising the principles upon which the nation was founded.

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Intelligence in the RUM WAR at Sea, 1920-1933

Author LT Eric S. Ensign, USCG

This book reflects careful archival research by U.S Coast Guard Lieutenant Eric Ensign, who was a student at the National Defense Intelligence College in the 1997-1998 academic year. The manuscript was originally prepared to fulfil part of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence at this institution. His work holds enduring value, in light of the continuing countersmugglng missions of the U.S. Coast Guard and other national security organizations. Its publication offers one example of the variety of applied intelligence research carried out by over 100 successful degree candidates who graduate each year from this College’s graduate program in intelligence studies.

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Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Author David T. Moore

This work builds on earlier publications in this series, particularly
Occasional Papers Two, Six, and Seven; Getting Intelligence Right: The Power of Logical Procedure, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone, and Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. The author’s insights have been developed through years of creative interaction with the Community’s leaders in analytic methododology, and tested for practicality by successive waves of students in training and education courses throughout the Community.

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Beneath the Surface Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace for Counterterrorism

Author Troy S. Thomas

This book presents the deep subject-matter understanding gained by a mid-career U.S. Air Force officer who as a Research Fellow engaged in a year-long quest for insight into asymmetric conflict
analysis and synthesis. During the year, through innumerable exchanges with expert counterterrorism practitioners inside and outside of government, he acquired a first-hand appreciation of how intelligence can more systematically build and employ a capability to gain ground in this challenging environment. His formulation, presented here in an accessible, systematic manner that makes it suitable as a handbook for practitioners at any level, goes well beyond any existing guidance yet assembled in one package.

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Anticipating Surprise Analysis for Strategic Warning

Author Cynthia M. Grabo

This book written 30 years ago and its message could not be more relevant today. After World War II, the U.S. Intelligence Community’s main objective was to understand the intentions and capabilities of the Communist threat.

In the summer of 1972, the Defense Intelligence Agency published her Handbook of Warning Intelligence as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These recently declassified books have been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. The National Defense Intelligence College proudly offers to the Intelligence Community and to the public Ms. Grabo’s authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning.

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Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods

Author Robert D. Folker, Jr.

In clear, articulate, unmistakable language, Master Sergeant Folker’s learned thesis sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The controversy is largely one-sided, because proponents of intuitive analysis see no purpose in debating the issue, as they are completely satisfied with the status quo. It is only the structuring enthusiasts who see a need for drastic change in the way analysis is conducted. Because, as Folker points out, supporters of the status quo include not only most analysts but most commanders as well, the structuring enthusiasts have never made progress in reforming the other side. And they won’t make any progress until the superiority of structured analysis over intuitive analysis is proved, which Folker has taken a first giant step in doing.

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Shakespeare for Analysts: Literature and Intelligence

Author Jeffrey White

This paper is an argument and a suggestion. The argument is that what Shakespeare had to say about human behavior in the political and leadership realms is worth reading, and hearing, today. The suggestion is that analysts concerned with understanding the behavior of important individuals—leaders, commanders, supporters, family members, enemies, rivals, inner circle members, opposition figures—should do so. It is perhaps an “out of the box” idea; but I would contend that Shakespeare should be part of the canon of intelligence literature, a fundamental addition to the works that intelligence professionals read.

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Learning with Professionals

Author James E. Lightfoot

Learning With Professionals: Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College is a collection of writings by present or former faculty and students at the Joint Military Intelligence College. The purpose of the book is to provide an academic
resource for students, teachers, and practitioners of intelligence. The growth of the field as an academic discipline has been accompanied by a growth in its body of literature, and some of the most significant writings have come from a center of excellence in the field, the National DefenseIntelligence College. Those presented here represent a cross section of subdisciplines, some with a very timely element, some timeless.

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Experiences to Go: Teaching with Intelligence Case Studies

Author Thomas W. Shreeve

The author Thomas W. Shreeve developed and refined the case-study method of teaching intelligence principles and procedures. His cases, including some used at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, are realistic and historically accurate. The validity of intelligence case studies presupposes the existence of academic theory or, alternatively, worldly practice that constitutes “theory-in-action.” The National Foreign Intelligence Community, of course, offers a quintessential example of the latter, making the case studies described here both valid and reliable for a variety of instructional environments. Shreeve’s advice and examples for writing a teaching note can guide a novice case-method instructor toward an effective classroom analysis of cases.

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A Flourishing Craft: Teaching Intelligence Studies

Author Russell Swenson

Readers should recognize that a good deal of difference exists between the teachingoriented case studies in this paper, on the one hand, and research papers using the case study design wherein sources are explicitly identified, the event context more fully explored, and the research questions carefully related to a theoretical superstructure through pertinent conclusions. Case studies generate important questions for student consideration, using the broad range of evidence derived from empirical observations by respective authors and other contributors to each case.

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Teaching Intelligence at Colleges and Universities

Conference Proceedings / Paperback

The teaching of intelligence at growing numbers of our colleges and universities — the teaching of its place, structure and practice in our democracy — offers the welcome prospect that growing numbers of young Americans will become attracted to the field. It offers the
prospect that, increasingly, the very best of the coming generation’s talents and capabilities will participate in the contributions of intelligence to the survival, security and well-being of the Nation.


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Crime Scene Intelligence: An Experiment in Forsenic Entomology

Author LT Albert M. Cruz

LT Albert Cruz’s forensic entomology/explosive (E2) scientific project proved to be cutting edge and groundbreaking science in the forensic community. His thorough research and original analysis included a newly found forensic/intelligence analytical tool which could help bring justice, fight the war on terrorism, and find “ground truth” in cases which involve domestic and international terrorism, war crimes, torture, drug trafficking, and chemical explosive identification by utilizing the common carrion fly. In addition, the project may be effective in counter-denial and deception operations which are known to be highly relevant and valuable to the Intelligence Community (IC) in cases of deceptive mass grave movement and genocide

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Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process

Author John W. Bodnar

Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College’s Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF’s strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. Together with the accompanying, classified case studies that are available to the Community on Intelink, this book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.

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